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“Whoever wins this standoff has the potential to shape the Asia-Pacific region for the next decade.”Īlmost like a Tom Clancy novel, the scenario ran as follows: In 2030, a Chinese flotilla lands 50 soldiers on Uotsuri Jima, an island in the East China Sea that is part of the Senkakus, an island chain owned by Japan but also claimed by China. “The stakes are high,” said Susanna Blume, CNAS’s defense director, to about 400 members of the public who were participating, mostly from the United States, Canada, and the United Kingdom. And it had an unusual twist: It was crowdsourced through Zoom, with CNAS staff presenting options to the public participants who would then vote to decide which strategies the Chinese and U.S./Japanese teams would implement.
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The simulation, titled “A Deadly Game: East China Sea Crisis 2030,” was run on July 20 (you can watch the video here). military to step in without American and Chinese troops firing on each other. According to a wargame run by the Washington-based Center for a New American Security (CNAS), it is impossible for the U.S. Their orders are to support Japan while trying to avoid combat with Chinese forces. warships and aircraft arrive, accompanying a Japanese flotilla. Japan dispatches an amphibious task force to retake the island. Chinese troops seize a Japanese island in the South China Sea.